The envelope please...

So, I haven't seen everything yet, but I have seen all eight Best Picture nominees. So, I'm going to pretend like that gives me some authority to share my picks for the 87th Academy Awards. I'm just going with the biggies because, honestly, who can be expected to predict sound editing or documentary short feature. So here goes...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What should win? The Grand Budapest Hotel - SO clever
What will win? Birdman - brilliant

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What should win? Inherent Vice - assuming this because PTA is awesome
What will win? Theory of Everything - think this is gonna be their biggest win

VISUAL EFFECTS
This is a toss-up - I have seen all five and all were amazing. I'm rooting for Interstellar because it was so unusual.

SONG
What should win? Everything is Awesome
What will win? Glory - this is a shoe-in. This is one of two noms for Selma, and it is definitely not going to win Best Picture. So this will win.

ORIGINAL SCORE
What should win? Interstellar
What will win? The Imitation Game

CINEMATOGRAPHY
This is a toughy - but I'm giving it to Birdman

ANIMATED FILM
I don't think there's a standout here - I would give it to The Lego Movie, but it got snubbed. So I'm leaning toward Big Hero 6

DIRECTOR
All five brilliant. 
Who should win? Alejandro Inarritu - Birdman - This film was a stunning achievement
Who will win? Richard Linklater - Boyhood - likewise stunning - but it was an actor's film

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who should win? Emma Stone - Birdman - She blew me away in this role - amazing
Who will win? Patricia Arquette -  Boyhood - She was great, but Emma was awesome

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who should win? J.K. Simmons - Whiplash - all great performances, I'm sure, but...
Who will win? J.K. Simmons - if Simmons doesn't win, I'm going to Hollywood and starting a riot.

BEST ACTRESS
Of the big categories, this is the one I feel least qualified to pick, as I have seen only one of the nominees. However...
Who do I wish would win? Reese Witherspoon - Wild - everything I've seen looks amazing
Who do I think will probably win? Julianne Moore - Still Alice - This looks like a nuanced and sensitive performance - she seems to be the favorite

BEST ACTOR
First, I want to say, I have seen four of the five performances and they were all amazing, but...
Who should win? Michael Keaton - Birdman - I will be SO happy if he gets it, but...
Who will win? Eddie Redmayne - Theory of Everything - this is the kind of role Oscar loves.

BEST PICTURE
All eight are statue-worthy, but...
What should win? Whiplash - I was continually thrilled and enthralled from the first second to the last. It won't win, but it was incredible.
What will win? There's a chance this could go to Birdman, but I think Boyhood will take it. This movie was amazing. But more importantly, it was an amazing achievement. I really think this will win.